China-U.S. cooperation is the cornerstone of global scientific progress. Today, however, this collaboration is facing risks.‍‍‍‍

Image source:REUTERS/Ihsaan Haffejee

Niccolò Pisani

Professor of Strategy and International Business at the International Institute for Management Development in Switzerland

• China-U.S. cooperation is the cornerstone of global scientific progress.

• China is catching up in the field of scientific research and has even surpassed the U.S. in certain areas.

• China and the U.S. must weigh the long-term consequences of technological decoupling.

It is widely recognized that science increasingly demands collaboration. Yet despite groundbreaking advancements in fields like climate change and medicine, Sino-U.S. cooperative relationships are under strain due to escalating geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and security concerns—threatening to derail decades of shared progress.

While some Western companies continue to invest in R&D in both China and the U.S., others have chosen to pull out. For instance, AstraZeneca recently committed $3.5 billion to expand its research and manufacturing operations in the U.S., with $2 billion earmarked for creating more than 1,000 high-skilled jobs.

AstraZeneca is also making significant investments in China, spending over $450 million to build a new factory that will produce inhalers for treating "smoker's lung."

Meanwhile, other Western companies like IBM, HP, and Microsoft have clearly slowed down their R&D investments in China, highlighting a broader "de-risking" trend among Western firms: shifting scientific investments back to their home markets in search of stability and innovation amid uncertainty.

IBM revealed at the end of last August that it has decided to shut down certain operations in China and scale back its R&D activities. HP has also reportedly planned to move more than half of its personal computer production out of China, while Microsoft announced plans to relocate some of its AI researchers from China to its new lab in Canada.

However, amid this wave of relocation and protectionist measures, we’ve overlooked an important fact: China has been a global science powerhouse for many years now.

In 2018, China's total number of scientific papers surpassed that of the United States for the first time. While the U.S. continues to lead in high-impact research, China's remarkable surge in academic output is reshaping the global scientific landscape.

China: A Global Leader in Science

A collaborative study titled "China’s Rise as a Global Science Powerhouse: International Collaboration and Specialization in High-Impact Research," conducted by the Swiss International Institute for Management Development, was released at the end of last year. The research analyzed over 25 million scientific papers published between 2008 and 2020, revealing that China has emerged as a major player in high-impact scientific research. Chinese scientists not only produce a vast number of scientific papers but also demonstrate remarkable influence in their fields.

China ranks second globally in the share of scientific papers, trailing only the United States, and is increasingly integrated into the international community, holding a prominent position among papers ranked in the top 1% and top 10% for citations.

Moreover, over the past two decades, science has increasingly become a collaborative endeavor. More and more, scientific progress now relies on the collective efforts of teams, with a growing number of co-authored papers completed across international borders.

Against this backdrop, China has achieved its highest-ever growth rates in both domestic and international cooperation. The same study reveals that, over the past two decades, China’s growth in domestic and international collaboration has significantly outpaced that of countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, France, and Italy. As a result, China has dramatically expanded its openness to both domestic and global partnerships, enabling it to maintain a leading position in global scientific output.

Sino-U.S. Scientific Cooperation Partnership

One of the study’s most significant findings is that China’s success in high-impact research is closely tied to Sino-U.S. international collaboration. In China’s top-tier, internationally recognized research projects, more than 45% involve U.S. scientists. This figure far exceeds common perceptions, highlighting the highly interconnected nature of today’s scientific landscape.

However, the escalating tensions between China and the U.S. could threaten scientific cooperation between the two countries. The renewal of the U.S.-China Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement is now at risk, despite having underpinned research collaboration for an impressive 45 years.

Export controls on China's semiconductor industry, coupled with concerns over intellectual property and national security, have made extending the agreement particularly challenging. U.S. President Trump has already signaled that he will enforce stringent trade policies against China, prompting Beijing to brace itself for a potential trade war. In response, China has rolled out a series of countermeasures, including placing certain foreign companies on control lists, imposing sanctions, and restricting exports of critical semiconductor materials.

The science and technology cooperation agreement remains stalled, and if terminated, Sino-U.S. scientific collaboration would suffer a severe blow, threatening to derail decades of shared progress.

We are at a critical juncture in the global research landscape. Data shows that more than 30% of high-impact, internationally recognized research conducted in the U.S. involves Chinese scientists—clear evidence of the deep collaboration and remarkable achievements between our two countries.

Geopolitical threats hinder scientific progress

As China and the U.S. reduce their collaboration, the two countries may risk undermining their own scientific ecosystems. These systems have thrived on the complementary strengths of both nations—China’s manufacturing prowess and vast data resources, combined with the U.S.’s cutting-edge research infrastructure and technological expertise.

The termination of the agreement not only signals a policy shift but could also lead to the fragmentation of global science—precisely at a critical juncture when collaborative efforts are urgently needed to tackle challenges like climate change, pandemics, and technological equity, especially as artificial intelligence is poised to deliver groundbreaking innovations.

Looking ahead, China and the U.S. must weigh the long-term consequences of technological decoupling. Even amid competition, maintaining cooperation is the key to driving future advancements in science, the economy, and, most importantly, society.

The above content solely represents the author's personal views.This article is translated from the World Economic Forum's Agenda blog; the Chinese version is for reference purposes only.Feel free to share this in your WeChat Moments; please leave a comment at the end of the post or on our official account if you’d like to republish.